Friday, September 28, 2012

Jim Cramer Actually Gets Something RIGHT!

Jim Cramer of Mad Money, someone who is bullish on gold but has bashed the gold miners relentlessy over the years and praises the GLD, gave HIGH praise to my favorite stock today - Sandstorm Gold (SAND)!

And he's finally got something right.

Some Notes from Cramer: 

Likes gold going forward: "Printing money means more upside for gold..."

Likes Sandstorm - "new spec way to play gold rally. Bullion then GLD(no miners) lists all the problems of miners..." then recommends SAND.

" it's sandstorm gold symbol sand. speculative canadian mine financing business. think of sandstorm as beinging a financer for gold miners. we're in an environment where mierns have a lot of trouble getting financing. lenders aren't lending them money. they need more capital. take advantage of this high gold price. that's where sandstorm comes in they will give a gold miner immediate money up front in exchange for the percentage of the future gold produced.

in essence buying themselves a piece of the production stream. they also make a fixed ongoing payment for the gold they receive ooe down the road. that payment is incredibly low, usually around $500 an ounce. gold is worth about $1700 an ounce. why don't you think of sandstorm being a smaller version of a stock that blew my mind when they came on the show, franco nevada..." From 

"What if there was a company that gave you the benefits of a higher gold price but none of the headaches?"

Yup, he's a little late to the Sandstorm party here as we're hitting new highs, but I do believe there is still much upside to the SAND price. I've been long since 2010 and have no intention of selling.

Welcome aboard, Cramer!

Watch the video here! -

Insider Buying - Buy With the Insiders and Profit!

Please check out this latest article I wrote at InfoBarrel. It explains why I pay so close attention to when insiders of a company are buying or selling. Best of luck investing!

Make Money With Insider Trading

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Solitario Exploration - An Undervalued, Shareholder-Friendly Company

Finding undervalued junior gold exploration companies is no easy task - it takes countless hours of digging and research.

However, it is becoming easier for myself to spot great deals because Sandstorm Gold has been finding them for me!

Solitario (Quote: XPL) is one such example. I had never heard of them before they completed a $10 financing with Sandstorm Gold (for a 2.4 % NSR - more on that later). Here is the story on Solitario. In bold is the main points I'd like to make:

Current Market Cap - $58 million ($1.75 a share).

The company has a number of exciting projects, but for this discussion, we will focus solely on its Mt. Hamilton Gold Project. (Although the Bongara Zinc project is also very exciting).


The Mt. Hamilton gold project is located in Nevada, one of the most mining-friendly regions in the world. A new resource estimate gave the project a total of 751,000 Au Eq (Gold Equivalent Ounces, Measured and Indicated) and 154,000 Au Eq inferred, for a total of 905,000 ounces. The resource is growing and has almost doubled since 2010. You can bet that management is focused on expanding the resource even further.

The project carries robust economics, with estimated $575 operating cash costs per ounce, and just $72 million capital cost to bring the gold mine online (really not that much, IMO). The mine is projected to produce 48,000 gold ounces and 330,000 silver ounces per year. However, drilling is ongoing, and the resource is expected to be increased even more. They are aiming for first production in 2015. I am expecting the total resource to be north of 1+ million ounces, and potentially 70K+ average annual Au Eq production.

The estimated pre-tax cash flow of this project, at $1500 gold and $29 silver, is $35.6 million a year and $284 mill. for the life of mine, which makes it interesting because their current market cap is under $60 million. Based on more current prices of $1700 and $33, however, the pre-tax cash flows increases to $48 million a year and $389 million for life of mine. With $1700 gold, the project carries a NPV of $261 million! With gold price of $2,000 and silver of $40+, you can imagine how much more profitable the mine becomes. See the below chart:

Again, low initial capital costs of just $71.9 million is required. Sandstorm bought a NSR for $10 million - however, I expect they will convert this to a streaming deal later on. I see them cutting a deal with Solitario for an upfront payment of $30+ million, for the right to purchase 15 or so percent of life of mine gold production, at $450-500 an ounce. From their agreement: ( If (Solitario) enters into a gold stream agreement with Sandstorm that has an upfront deposit of no less than US$30 million, (Solitario) will have the option, for a period of 30 months, to repurchase up to 100% of the NSR for US$12 million.) The rest of the financing will come from either equity or, more likely, a credit facility with RMB. *Financing will not be a problem, in my opinion, and share dilution is unlikely, because...

Solitario management seems to be very shareholder friendly. Maybe it's because management owns nearly 12 percent of the company themselves. The current share count is only 34.5 million. This is unheard of for a junior mining company that has been around for 5+ years. Most companies have to resort to dilution, which can be painful. With $10 million cash on hand, Solitario is in an enviably position.

Insiders have also been buying - On June 28, the CEO of the company bought 180,000 shares.

Insiders are buying. Credit:
The Mt. Hamilton gold project is just one of four projects for Solitario, and I believe this project makes the company worth buying alone!


To sum it up, here's why I consider Solitario to be an exceptional buying opportunity:

*1) Gold Project in safe region with robust economics - low operating cash costs and minimal capital required to get in production.

*2) Major backing by Sandstorm Gold - Vote of confidence and third party validation - Sandstorm only cuts deals with companies that have solid management and upside potential. I don't see raising money as a problem -  based on their past actions, I really don't think shareholders should be concerned about dilution.

*3) Undervalued based on the numbers - Mt. Hamilton has a Net Present Value of $261 million based on $1700 gold - current market cap under $60 million.

*4) Shareholder-friendly management - no dilution, large insider ownership and recent insider buying gives me more confidence.

*5) Upside in price of gold - money printing from central banks around the world should lead to a higher gold price, thus increasing the value of Solitario's assets.

Full Disclosure: I am long SSL. I do not own any shares of XPL, but may initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Please do you own due diligence when investing and good luck!

Monday, September 24, 2012

Magellan Minerals Presents Rare Buying Opportunity

Gold stocks have moved up significantly during the latest run-up in the price of gold, as physical gold shot up from $1550 to over $1750 an ounce. The stocks led the way higher, with the HUI Gold Bugs index eclipsing 500 after hitting lows around 350 just months ago.

As gold approaches $2,000 an ounce an ultimately $5,000 an ounce in the coming years, the gold stocks will led the charge, outperforming. As I've stated before, I believe the junior gold stocks and exploration companies will outperform the major mining companies. Juniors are smaller in size, but hold explosive, 1,000 percent gain potential. And, of course, more risk.

Now, many gold and silver mining stocks have made big moves this past month as the Federal Reserve announced monthly, unlimited Quantitative Easing. But not all gold stocks have made big moves and it is a challenge to find one that hasn't.
*Magellan Minerals is one micro-cap gold stock I've written about before. They own two very promising gold projects in Brazil.

They are a Canadian-based junior gold exploration company "focused on mineral exploration and development in the state of Para in northern Brazil. The Company has interests in a number of properties in the Tapajos region which has a historic gold production estimated at 20-30Moz of gold. The Company has two advanced gold projects, Cuiu Cuiu and Coringa."

Magellan has been a big underperformer as the stock has gone from .35 cents a month ago to just .22 cents today. And in 2011, the stock was over $1.50. The brutal correction in the gold mining stocks was not kind to Magellan.

However, I see the tides changing very soon for this company.
**Here are three big reasons why I consider Magellan Minerals an outstanding buying opportunity at current prices: 

1) Financing with Sandstorm Gold  - on May 15 for $7.5 million. This gives them an ample supply of cash (Probably still much of it left over to date). The latest presentation says they have $5 million cash on hand, however, this does not include the $7.5 million financing. So I believe they likely have over $10 million cash on hand currently. *This financing is a third party validation from Sandstorm Gold. Sandstorm does not do deals with companies they don't believe in.

This shows me that: A) Sandstorm believes in Magellan management. As Sandstorm has stated a number of times, this is very important in their process of finding gold streams, and,B) They believe in the upside potential of Magellan's properties.

2) Insiders have been buying - They first started back in May around the time of the financing. More recently, insiders bought over 200K shares on Sept. 21. There are a number of reasons for selling, however, there is one reason for insider buying - they think the share price will rise.
Insider Buys at Magellan. Credit:

3) Positive news flow to come - while they have been quiet of late, I expect news going forward, and very shortly. Coming at the end of this month or early next month will be the updated PEA on the Coringa deposit (1.1 million ounces).

*The previous NPV of  Coringa was just $41 million but was only based on a resource of 370K ounces! The new PEA will be based on 1.1 million ounces!

Plus, the previous PEA was based on $950 gold. At $1,200 gold, the original PEA gave the project a NPV of $80 million. ***With a 1.1 million resource and a price of gold at $1,700, one can expect the new NPV of Coringa to be well above $100 million.

(Have I mentioned that the current market cap of Magellan is around $20 million!)

In conclusion, I strongly feel that the market has not placed a fair value on shares of this company.

Best of luck investing!

FULL DISCLOSURE: I am long V.MNM and SSL. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Please do you own due diligence when investing!

Friday, September 14, 2012

Some Trades to Consider for the Dollar Devaluation

Here are some trades I recently made to profit from the dollar devaluationthat is taking place:

ANR Jan 19 '13  - Alpha Natural Resources $10 call option January 2013.
$10 Call

BTU Jan 18 '14  - Peadbody Energy $33 call option January 2014.
$33 Call

EXK Jan 19 '13  - Endeavor Silver January 2013 call option.
$10 Call

GDXJ Jan 19 '13 - Junior Gold Mining Index January 2013 Call option
$25.63 Call

SLW Dec 22 '12 $38 Call  - Silver Wheaton $38 call option.

TBT Jan 18 '14 $20 Call- Short Treasuries $20 call option.

Full Disclosure: I am long all of the above positions. Trading options involves risk so trade carefully. 

Gold and Silver Enter the Final Stage of This Incredible Bull Market!

Hello, folks. My apologies for the delay between posts, I've been incredibly busy at work.

How things have changed! When I last wrote about gold and silver stocks a few months ago, NOBODY wanted to touch these things. The stocks got SLAUGHTERED - The HUI index was dropping under 350 and gold while hovering under $1,550. The stocks tend to overreact to the highs and lows. 


Credit: Yahoo! Finance

The inevitable occurred yesterday when Ben Bernanke announced QE3 in the form of monthly purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities in the tune of $40 billion + a month.

I want to personally congratulate all the investors who had the CONVICTION to average down their gold and silver positions these past 6-12 months. It was a brutal correction we went through! But the worst days are behind us and this is where the money will be made! I believe we are entering the third and final leg up in commodities - we will see $5,000 gold and $100+ silver before this thing is over.We could very well see the HUI touch 1,000 and more. I do believe many of the gold and silver shares are still a bargain.

So for those new investors, there is still money to be made. The good news is that you still have time.